Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 105,163
2 South Dakota 92,920
3 Iowa 74,850
4 Wisconsin 72,294
5 Nebraska 68,511
6 Utah 63,076
7 Montana 60,254
8 Wyoming 59,622
9 Illinois 59,202
10 Idaho 58,895
11 Minnesota 58,077
12 Kansas 56,630
13 Rhode Island 55,698
14 Tennessee 55,023
15 Arkansas 53,522
16 Mississippi 52,708
17 Indiana 52,541
18 Alabama 52,379
19 Missouri 52,369
20 Louisiana 51,913
21 Nevada 51,161
22 Oklahoma 51,135
23 New Mexico 48,150
24 Florida 47,404
25 Arizona 47,113
26 Alaska 45,949
27 Texas 44,599
28 Georgia 43,741
29 South Carolina 42,891
30 Kentucky 42,766
31 Colorado 42,253
32 Michigan 40,278
33 New Jersey 39,184
34 Delaware 37,686
35 Ohio 37,464
36 North Carolina 35,518
37 New York 34,390
38 Connecticut 34,057
39 Massachusetts 33,983
40 Maryland 33,688
41 California 32,190
42 District of Columbia 30,948
43 Pennsylvania 29,787
44 Virginia 28,408
45 West Virginia 27,846
46 Puerto Rico 27,342
47 Washington 23,365
48 Oregon 18,542
49 New Hampshire 16,424
50 Hawaii 12,795
51 Maine 9,081
52 Vermont 7,149

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 1,589
2 Wyoming 1,162
3 Kansas 1,098
4 Nebraska 1,044
5 New Mexico 881
6 Indiana 876
7 Utah 874
8 South Dakota 867
9 Minnesota 857
10 Idaho 837
11 Tennessee 827
12 Connecticut 826
13 Michigan 823
14 Kentucky 813
15 Montana 810
16 Iowa 789
17 Alaska 782
18 Arizona 775
19 Colorado 767
20 Illinois 755
21 Nevada 731
22 Wisconsin 679
23 Ohio 670
24 Alabama 652
25 Louisiana 651
26 Missouri 651
27 North Dakota 646
28 Arkansas 582
29 Oklahoma 572
30 Mississippi 569
31 West Virginia 540
32 Texas 530
33 Pennsylvania 519
34 Delaware 495
35 New Hampshire 454
36 New Jersey 454
37 Massachusetts 448
38 California 442
39 Washington 420
40 Florida 395
41 New York 395
42 Maryland 382
43 Georgia 379
44 North Carolina 330
45 Oregon 322
46 South Carolina 304
47 Virginia 255
48 Puerto Rico 209
49 Vermont 192
50 District of Columbia 186
51 Maine 173
52 Hawaii 45

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,930
2 New York 1,762
3 Massachusetts 1,570
4 Connecticut 1,427
5 Louisiana 1,398
6 Rhode Island 1,313
7 Mississippi 1,293
8 North Dakota 1,275
9 South Dakota 1,124
10 Illinois 1,060
11 Michigan 985
12 District of Columbia 977
13 Arizona 928
14 Indiana 887
15 Georgia 876
16 Florida 874
17 South Carolina 863
18 Pennsylvania 843
19 Arkansas 835
20 Delaware 799
21 Iowa 798
22 Maryland 779
23 New Mexico 776
24 Texas 773
25 Alabama 756
26 Nevada 722
27 Missouri 681
28 Tennessee 678
29 Montana 667
30 Minnesota 665
31 Wisconsin 638
32 Nebraska 585
33 Kansas 576
34 Ohio 570
35 Colorado 560
36 Idaho 560
37 North Carolina 515
38 California 491
39 Virginia 481
40 Kentucky 475
41 Oklahoma 457
42 West Virginia 434
43 Wyoming 397
44 New Hampshire 394
45 Washington 391
46 Puerto Rico 358
47 Utah 282
48 Oregon 228
49 Hawaii 170
50 Maine 162
51 Alaska 158
52 Vermont 118

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 20
2 South Dakota 19
3 Nebraska 18
4 Kansas 17
5 Idaho 14
6 Illinois 14
7 Indiana 14
8 New Mexico 14
9 Rhode Island 14
10 Connecticut 12
11 Iowa 12
12 Michigan 12
13 Missouri 12
14 Montana 12
15 Wisconsin 12
16 Colorado 11
17 Pennsylvania 10
18 Alabama 9
19 Nevada 9
20 West Virginia 9
21 Wyoming 8
22 Ohio 7
23 Kentucky 6
24 Louisiana 6
25 Maine 6
26 Minnesota 6
27 New Jersey 6
28 Oklahoma 6
29 Tennessee 6
30 Texas 6
31 Washington 6
32 Arizona 5
33 Arkansas 5
34 Mississippi 5
35 Puerto Rico 5
36 South Carolina 5
37 District of Columbia 4
38 Florida 4
39 Maryland 4
40 Massachusetts 4
41 North Carolina 4
42 Oregon 4
43 Delaware 3
44 Georgia 3
45 New York 3
46 Utah 3
47 Vermont 3
48 California 2
49 New Hampshire 2
50 Virginia 2
51 Alaska 0
52 Hawaii 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Norton Kansas 206,491 1 99
Crowley Colorado 204,917 2 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 198,812 3 99
Buffalo South Dakota 195,209 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 193,412 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 68,692 505 83
Richland South Carolina 49,748 1253 60
York South Carolina 35,803 2058 34
Orange California 26,086 2536 19
Pierce Washington 20,786 2737 12

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,587 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 6,458 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 5,952 3 99
Hancock Georgia 5,439 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 5,238 5 99
Richland South Carolina 729 1336 57
Davidson Tennessee 612 1586 49
Orange California 497 1860 40
York South Carolina 491 1877 40
Pierce Washington 361 2220 29

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons